Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Real Threat to Earth and the Moon?

The asteroid 2024 YR4, a NEO (Near-Earth Object), has recently captured the attention of the scientific community due to its potentially dangerous future approach to both Earth and the Moon. Discovered in late 2024 by the Chilean observation system ATLAS, it has an estimated diameter between 40 and 90 meters, with a trajectory that could bring it, according to the latest orbital estimates, to a minimum distance of only 200,000 km from Earth and 20,000 km from the Moon on December 22, 2032. For this reason, the risk of a catastrophic impact cannot be underestimated. If it were to hit our planet, it could unleash devastation similar to that of the 1908 Tunguska event, while an impact with the Moon could significantly alter the surface of our natural satellite, as well as generate debris potentially dangerous to orbiting space infrastructures.

The fact that the asteroid could approach so closely to our planet raises serious concerns: if its trajectory, highly uncertain due to the limited number of available observations, were to undergo even a slight deviation due to gravitational (and other) effects, it could hit Earth with devastating consequences. The energy released by such an impact, at an approximate speed of 17 km/sec, could exceed that of many nuclear bombs, causing enormous regional damage and triggering shock waves capable of flattening entire cities within a radius of a few tens of kilometers.

Initially, the estimated impact probability for 2032 was 3.1%, an exceptionally high value for an object of these dimensions. However, subsequent observations have fortunately reduced this risk to the current value of 0.28%. Nonetheless, the possibility of a sudden deviation in the trajectory makes monitoring the object essential. Major space agencies, including NASA, ESA, and the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), are employing the most advanced computational models to constantly update orbital estimates and predict the asteroid’s future behavior with the highest possible accuracy.

A potential impact with the Moon would not pose a direct threat to Earth and its inhabitants; however, it would have several significant consequences for space exploration. An eventual collision could:
• Alter the lunar surface, creating new craters and ejecting enormous quantities of debris.
• Damage orbiting satellites and any future lunar bases.
• Influence the behavior of Earth’s tides.
• Delay or even cancel future space missions.

To avert a catastrophe, the scientific community is evaluating several deviation strategies:
• Kinetic impactors, as tested by NASA’s DART mission, to deflect the asteroid through a strong direct impact.
• Long-range laser treatments to slightly modify its orbit.
• Gravitational tractors, involving space probes that use their own gravity to slowly alter the asteroid’s trajectory.

In this high-uncertainty scenario, the STK (Systems Tool Kit) and ODTK software prove to be essential tools for the prevention and mitigation of collision risks. Thanks to their advanced modeling and simulation capabilities in the field of Space Situational Awareness, STK and ODTK enable scientists and analysts to:
• Generate orbital trajectories from the launch phase, using state-of-the-art propagation and perturbation mathematical models.
• Propagate orbiting natural objects using SPICE ephemerides generated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
• Simulate potential impact scenarios to assess possible damage on both local and global scales.
• Model collision risk mitigation maneuvers for space assets, verifying their long-term effectiveness.
• Schedule observation time windows for so-called PHOs (Potentially Hazardous Objects).
• Process measurements acquired from terrestrial and/or space sensors to update the orbital estimates of natural and artificial objects.

The close approach of asteroid 2024 YR4 should not be taken lightly. Although the current impact risk is low, even a slight variation in its trajectory could transform it into a concrete threat for Earth or the Moon. Only through constant monitoring and the use of advanced tools like STK will it be possible to anticipate every scenario and protect our planet and space infrastructures. The time to act is now.